On the robust detection of edges in time series filtering

Abrupt shifts in the level of a time series represent important information and should be preserved in statistical signal extraction. We investigate rules for detecting level shifts that are resistant to outliers and which work with only a short time delay. The properties of robustified versions of the t-test for two independent samples and its non-parametric alternatives are elaborated under different types of noise. Trimmed t-tests, median comparisons, robustified rank and ANOVA tests based on robust scale estimators are compared. --time series filtering,jumps,outliers,test resistance

On rank tests for shift detection in time series

Robustified rank tests, applying a robust scale estimator, are investigated for reliable and fast shift detection in time series. The tests show good power for sufficiently large shifts, low false detection rates for Gaussian noise and high robustness against outliers. Wilcoxon scores in combination with a robust and efficient scale estimator achieve good performance in many situations. --signal extraction,jumps,outliers,test resistance

Robust Trend Estimation for AR(1) Disturbances

We discuss the robust estimation of a linear trend if the noise follows an autoregressive process of first order. We find the ordinary repeated median to perform well except for negative correlations. In this case it can be improved by a Prais-Winsten transformation using a robust autocorrelation estimator. -- Wir behandeln die robuste Schätzung eines linearen Trends bei autoregressiven Fehlern erster Ordnung. Die Repeated Median Regression zeigt ein gutes Verhalten bei positiven Korrelationen. Bei negativen Korrelationen ist eine Verbesserung durch eine Prais-Winsten Transformation mittels eines robusten Korrelationsschätzers möglich.Robust Regression,Autocorrelations,Detrending,Cochrane-Orcutt Estimator,Prais-Winsten Estimator

Methods and algorithms for robust filtering

We discuss filtering procedures for robust extraction of a signal from noisy time series. Moving averages and running medians are standard methods for this, but they have shortcomings when large spikes (outliers) respectively trends occur. Modified trimmed means and linear median hybrid filters combine advantages of both approaches, but they do not completely overcome the difficulties. Improvements can be achieved by using robust regression methods, which work even in real time because of increased computational power and faster algorithms. Extending recent work we present filters for robust online signal extraction and discuss their merits for preserving trends, abrupt shifts and extremes and for the removal of spikes. --Signal extraction,drift,edge,outlier,update algorithm

Interventions in ingarch processes

We study the problem of intervention effects generating various types of outliers in a linear count time series model. This model belongs to the class of observation driven models and extends the class of Gaussian linear time series models within the exponential family framework. Studies about effects of covariates and interventions for count time series models have largely fallen behind due to the fact that the underlying process, whose behavior determines the dynamics of the observed process, is not observed. We suggest a computationally feasible approach to these problems, focusing especially on the detection and estimation of sudden shifts and outliers. To identify successfully such unusual events we employ the maximum of score tests, whose critical values in finite samples are determined by parametric bootstrap. The usefulness of the proposed methods is illustrated using simulated and real data examples. --parametric bootstrap,generalized linear models,observation driven models,level shifts,transient shifts,outliers

Spatial Sign Correlation

A new robust correlation estimator based on the spatial sign covariance matrix (SSCM) is proposed. We derive its asymptotic distribution and influence function at elliptical distributions. Finite sample and robustness properties are studied and compared to other robust correlation estimators by means of numerical simulations.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

The spatial sign covariance matrix and its application for robust correlation estimation

8 pages, 2 figures, to be published in the conference proceedings of 11th international conference "Computer Data Analysis & Modeling 2016" http://www.ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/about/editorialPolicies#openAccessPolicyPeer reviewedPublisher PD